The main concern businesses have about the U.S. trade dispute with China and other countries could ultimately be less about the tariffs that have been imposed than about the new regulations and judicial rulings that may result from the increased international tensions, say experts.

Political risk and trade credit market participants, who say the conflict-ridden situation could eventually lead to reduced capacity and increased rates, have already observed an increase in submissions.

Much attention has focused on the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on goods from China and other countries, which have responded by levying their own tariffs. There has been concern particularly about China because of the extent of its trading relationship with the United States. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on goods including foreign steel, aluminum, automotive parts and food ingredients, while China’s tariffs have included crude oil and soybeans.

However, “The economics and ease of doing business within a country like China have a far greater risk than the headline tariffs that we hear about - and the fact that it is China has its own challenges,” said Jerry Paulson, Chicago-based producer and partner, credit, political and financial risks for Lockton Cos. L.L.C.

In a way, “the tariffs themselves don’t matter that much,” said Rob Nijhout, executive director of the Amsterdam-based International Credit Insurance & Surety Association. The bigger problem is the uncertainty the situation creates, he said. “Traders and insurers like certainty and a clear landscape.”

China could retaliate in the form of nontariff barriers, which “could essentially become weapons, and this could escalate into some discriminatory measures being put towards U.S. investors” such as by restricting currency transfers or holding up goods in customs, said Laura Burns, Potomac, Maryland-based senior vice president, U.S. political risk product leader, political and credit risks for Willis Towers Watson P.L.C.

“That changes fundamentally the investment climate of these countries’ risk and could lead, obviously, to more underwriter scrutiny” and potentially, more claims, and ultimately to less capacity appetite to cover investment risks, she said.

The situation “may lead to a change in how U.S. creditors are treated in foreign markets, especially China,” said Clay Sasse, New York-based managing director with Aon P.L.C.’s trade credit practice.

“Foreign creditors don’t always have a simple and easy time” of going through other countries’ court systems, he said, and debtors “may feel emboldened” into believing they have more of a home court advantage than they did a year ago.

Claims could arise from governments issuing punitive new rules that prevent companies from operating in foreign countries, said Daniel Riordan, president of political risk, credit and bond insurance in New York for XL Group Ltd., which does business as XL Catlin. He said those can often be as equally difficult as tariffs.

“There is some discussion that China is using border inspections as a way to get back at the U.S., slowing things down, holding things up at the border,” said Robert D. Atkinson, founder and president of The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation in Washington, a research and educational institute focused on the intersection of technological innovation and public policy.

“If it starts to escalate, the Chinese in particular have the ability to do essentially whatever they want because there’s no independent judiciary, there’s no real rule of law,” said Mr. Atkinson.

Meanwhile, submissions are up. “We have seen some uptick in submission activity, particularly from trading companies and exporters,” Mr. Riordan said.

“This is front-page news,” he said. “If you’re on the board of directors of a major trading company or exporter, you’re going to be concerned about it. Your risk management teams should be thinking about it” and assessing the situation.

“The only place we’ve seen pretty noticeable activity would be in the steel and aluminum sectors,” which is the first place where the tariffs took effect, said Aaron Rutstein, Hunt Valley, Maryland-based senior manager-buyer underwriting for trade credit insurer Atradius Risk Services Americas. “There’s definitely been a rush of new application volume coming in.”

He said, “We haven’t seen a real increase as of yet in claims activity related to this, and I don’t know that we will near term, because it all comes down to a function of credit quality” and it is unlikely large amounts of coverage are being approved for those who are not creditworthy.

The market remains competitive, say observers.

“Capacity is still very ample,” said Mr. Nijhout. “We’re still in very soft market conditions.”

But the current situation could lead to higher rates.

“I would definitely look for increased insurance costs across the board for direct foreign investments in countries” where there is trade conflict, said Marc Wagman, New York-based managing director, trade credit and political risk practice group, for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.