Help

BI’s Article search uses Boolean search capabilities. If you are not familiar with these principles, here are some quick tips.

To search specifically for more than one word, put the search term in quotation marks. For example, “workers compensation”. This will limit your search to that combination of words.

To search for a combination of terms, use quotations and the & symbol. For example, “hurricane” & “loss”.

Login Register Subscribe

Insurance rate declines could moderate in 2017

Reprints
Insurance rate declines could moderate in 2017

Pricing for commercial insurance lines will continue to slide in 2017, but at a slower pace, Swiss Re Ltd. said Tuesday.

The global economy is expected to grow moderately over the next two years, however, which will support continued growth in insurance premium volumes, according to Swiss Re’s Global Insurance Review and Outlook for 2017-18.

Cyber insurance rates, in contrast to many other commercial lines, are expected to harden, Swiss Re said, and could level off soon.

The reinsurer said increased awareness of the risks associated with cyber attacks and data breaches is boosting demand for related insurance products and presents a significant growth opportunity for the property/casualty sector.

“The insurance industry faces headwinds, with moderate economic growth, and still ample capacity in the markets creating a challenging pricing environment,” Kurt Karl, Swiss Re’s chief U.S. economist, said in a statement. “Nevertheless, premium volumes continue to grow, in both the advanced and emerging markets along with economic activity and an increase in the insurance penetration rate, particularly in emerging markets.”

Swiss Re said growth in global property/casualty premiums is expected to fall slightly from 2.4% in 2016 in real terms to 2.2% in 2017, and accelerate to 3% in 2018. Pricing in the global property/casualty sector remains challenging, Swiss Re said, while pricing in commercial lines continues to deteriorate across all regions, but at a slower pace.

To date, Swiss Re said, profitability in property/casualty has been sustained by low natural catastrophe losses and reserve releases. Assuming average natural catastrophe losses and shrinking reserve releases, return on equity is forecast to decline from 8% in 2015 to around 6% in 2016-18.

In property/casualty reinsurance, Swiss Re said global premium growth is expected to be 2.7% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018, based on increasing cessions from emerging markets.

Swiss Re said the U.S. economy is expected to grow by slightly more than 2% in inflation-adjusted terms annually over the next two years.

The election of Donald Trump to the presidency was not explicitly incorporated into the U.S. forecast, the reinsurer said, but this is unlikely to have a major effect on insurance markets over the next two years.

Monetary policy will be accommodating for the next two years, even as the U.S. is expected to gradually raise rates. Other central banks are expected to keep their policy rates and quantitative easing policies intact. With the Fed raising rates, Swiss Re said, U.S. 10-year government bond yields will likely rise, pulling yields in Europe slightly higher.

 

 

 

 

 

Read Next