Researchers develop tornado model; violent twisters may be increasing
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Researchers at Florida State University say they have developed a new statistical model that will help gauge the risk of tornadoes.
The model, outlined in an article published in the American Meteorological Society's journal Weather, Climate, and Society, offers a way to correct historical data to account for the fact that there were fewer reports confirmed reports of tornadoes in previous decades, the authors said Thursday.
The growth of storm chasers logging tornado sightings, greater public awareness of twisters and advances in reporting technology, including mobile Internet and GPS navigating systems, also may have contributed to the increase in reports in the past 15 to 20 years relative to the historic record, said Florida State geography Professor James B. Elsner.
“Most estimates of tornado risk are probably too low because they are based on the reported number of tornadoes,” Mr. Elsner said in a statement. “Our research can help better quantify the actual risk of a tornado. This will help with building codes and emergency awareness.”
With the new research, “the science of tornadoes can move forward to address questions related to whether cities enhance or inhibit tornadoes,” he said.
The model corrects assumptions about tornado reporting in urban and rural areas. While it is likely that tornadoes are not occurring with greater frequency, there is some evidence to suggest that tornadoes are, in fact, getting stronger, the researchers said.
“The risk of violent tornadoes appears to be increasing,” Mr. Elsner said in the statement. “The tornadoes in Oklahoma City on May 31 and the 2011 tornadoes in Joplin, Mo., and Tuscaloosa, Ala., suggest that tornadoes may be getting stronger.”
