NOAA predicts above-average Atlantic hurricane season
Reprints
This year's Atlantic hurricane season is “shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active,” according to an analysis released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
In its update of estimated hurricane activity, NOAA noted that this year's season has already produced four named storms. The peak of the season doesn't occur until mid-August through October.
In Thursday's report, NOAA said that there is a 70% chance that that 13 to 19 named storms — with top winds of 39 miles per hour or higher — will occur this season. This will include six to nine hurricanes with top winds of 74 mph or more, of which three to five could grow into major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph.
NOAA noted that such ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Meanwhile, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colo., issued its update forecast last week.
“We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic,” said the project in its update. “We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”
The Colorado State team projects 18 named storms, eight of which will grow into hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, three will develop into major hurricanes, according to the Tropical Meteorology Project.
