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Political risk exposures declining in 2013: Aon risk map

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Political risk exposures declining in 2013: Aon risk map

Certain emerging markets are experiencing reduced political risk exposures in 2013 compared with last year as the world's political risk landscape shows improvement, according to an analysis released Tuesday by Aon Risk Solutions.

Aon P.L.C.'s 2013 Political Risk Map measures political risk in 163 countries and territories to assess exchange transfers, supply chain disruptions, legal and regulatory regimes, political violence and ease of doing business, among others, London-based Aon said in a statement.

“Despite the fact that there are some fairly unfortunate things still ongoing in certain regions, there has been an overall improvement,” said Roger Schwartz, senior vice president and national practice leader for the political risk practice for Aon Risk Solutions in New York. “The world still obviously has its flashpoints, but overall we think the picture is looking a lot better, a lot healthier, than it did before.”

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This year's analysis shows an increase in the number of countries with upgraded political risk ratings, where the overall risk is rated lower than the previous year.

Thirteen countries were upgraded in 2013 compared with three in 2012. Some of these countries include Bahrain, Guatemala, Oman, Pakistan, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates, among others.

Upgrades for Bahrain, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates reflect a stabilization and differentiation of political risk in the Middle East and North Africa region, Aon said in the statement.

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“The three countries also represent an important comparison to the other North African and other regional countries because they have strong economic and financial systems,” Mr. Schwartz said. “It's clear that in a lot of cases that helps ameliorate some of those problems.”

The annual map, which was developed in partnership with New York-based Roubini Global Economics L.L.C., also shows 12 downgraded countries where the overall risk rated higher than the previous year. That compares with 21 downgraded countries in 2012.

These countries include Algeria, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Mali, Panama, and Uzbekistan, among others.

Counties like Algeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Mali pose greater political risks because of difficult regime changes in North Africa and heavy flows of weapons and insurgents across borders, according to the analysis.

“Developments so far in 2013 indicate the potential for further downgrades,” Aon said in the statement.

The 2013 Political Risk Map is available at www.aon.com.