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Turkey earthquake losses could reach $200M

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Turkey earthquake losses could reach $200M

VAN, Turkey—The earthquake that hit eastern Turkey last week could result in insured losses of up to $200 million, according to catastrophe modeling firms.

While Turkey operates an earthquake insurance pool, takeup of that coverage is low in the areas hit by the Oct. 23 temblor, they say.

More than 500 people perished in the quake and, officials said, hundreds more were feared dead. Still, a 2-week-old baby reportedly was pulled alive from the rubble two days after the quake and a man was rescued four days after the 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck.

The quake, which had its epicenter in the city of Van, was followed by a series of aftershocks.

Oakland, Calif.-based catastrophe modeler EQECAT Inc. estimated insured losses at $100 million to $200 million.

Total economic damage caused by the quake is likely to be in the “low single-digit billions” of dollars, EQECAT said, or about one-tenth of the economic damage that was caused by the devastating 1999 Izmit earthquake in western Turkey in which nearly 20,000 people were killed.

Boston-based AIR Worldwide Corp. estimated insured losses at $55 million to $170 million.

In 2000, the Turkish government set up a catastrophe fund, the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, which is funded by mandatory cessions from local insurers and reinsurers. It is backed by the Turkish government and the World Bank, and covers residential property for earthquake damage.

The pool retains losses of up to $80 million and transfers losses above that level to international reinsurance markets.

The pool offers policy limits of about $30,000, normally with a 2% deductible.

In the areas affected by the recent quake, however, only about 8% of dwellings have such coverage, according to AIR.

After the 1999 Izmit earthquake, the Turkish government introduced new construction codes that were updated in 2006, according to AIR Worldwide. But many buildings in Van likely were built before the code was introduced, AIR noted.

And building codes are not rigorously enforced in areas of eastern Turkey, noted Newark, Calif.-based modeler Risk Management Solutions Inc.