Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University predict that the increased Atlantic basin hurricane activity since 1995 will continue not only next year but also probably for the next two decades.

In a report issued Friday, the renowned team of storm researchers at CSU in Fort Collins, Colo., estimates that the probability that a major Atlantic hurricane will make landfall on U.S. shores next year is about 30% higher than the long-term average.

The researchers estimate that in 2004 seven Atlantic hurricanes will develop, compared with an annual average of 5.9 hurricanes. The researchers predict there will be three intense hurricanes rated as Category 3 storms or greater, compared with 2.3 intense hurricanes on average; six intense hurricane days, compared with an average of five days; and 30 hurricane days, compared with an average of 24.5.

In their study, Professor of Atmospheric Science William M. Gray and Research Associate Philip J. Klotzbach developed probabilities that a Category 3 or stronger hurricane would make landfall on several coastal areas, and all of their estimates exceeded averages for the past century. For the entire U.S. coastline, the researchers estimated a 68% likelihood, compared with an average of 52% for the past century.

Beyond 2004, a shift in the Atlantic Ocean's thermohaline circulation--which measures differences in sea water densities controlled by temperature and salinity--suggest that a period of at least a couple decades of increased hurricane activity commenced in 1995, the study's authors said. This period followed 25 years of "diminished activity," they said. Historical and geographical evidence suggests that a pattern of 25- to 50-year periods of greater and diminished hurricane activity has existed for thousands of years, according to the authors.

Meanwhile, a seasonally late tropical storm, Odette, was headed toward the Dominican Republic or Haiti Friday with winds clocked at more than 63 mph.

The full study is available online at http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2003/dec2003/.