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Editorial: Trade politics threatens supplies

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There are some high expectations ahead for the incoming administration.

Many people in the business world are optimistic that President-elect Donald Trump and the Republican Congress will take concrete actions that will create an environment that will yield positive results for corporations and their stakeholders.

In addition, many workers in the Rust Belt and elsewhere who voted for Mr. Trump will depend on him to deliver on his promise of higher-paying jobs.

The regulatory and policy changes he is likely to introduce are expected by many to create improved general economic conditions that will favor commerce, including the insurance industry.

Last month, in announcing plans to buy Allied World Assurance Co. Holdings A.G., the CEO of Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., Prem Watsa, said the Trump administration has “the strong potential” to make the business climate in the U.S. “great again,” which would be a favorable development for insurers whose fortunes are largely tied to economic growth.

As Mr. Watsa has proved time and again over the years, he’s a savvy investor who knows market trends.

But as we report in the cover story of this issue, while the overall expectations for the insurance and risk management sector are that the president-elect will have a positive influence, there are clearly some negative risks, not the least of which is Mr. Trump’s view of international trade agreements and how that might affect supply chain risk for U.S. companies.

On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump was highly critical of trade agreements throughout the world and pledged to negotiate “fair trade deals” that would create jobs in the United States. And he threatened to use the blunt instrument of punitive tariffs on imports to achieve that goal.

While it’s tough to predict what those renegotiated deals might look like, international supply chains are a crucial component of the business strategy of U.S. companies, and weakening or cutting the links that create them will eat into profits and put jobs at risk. U.S. risk managers must hope that the agreements — and the renegotiation process itself — don’t jeopardize the complex supply chains that so many of their organizations rely on.

Of course, pre-election posturing often does not translate into post-election policy, so let’s hope that any changes in trade agreements reflect the reality of global economics.