MONTE CARLO, Monaco—Ample capital means that—barring major losses by year-end—most reinsurance buyers will see stable rates when they renew their programs in January, experts said during the Rendez-Vous de Septembre reinsurance meeting.

Buyers with catastrophe-exposed business likely will see rate increases at the Jan. 1, 2012, renewals, especially if they suffered losses during a series of natural catastrophes around the world this year, but other lines of business are likely to remain stable, experts say.

Catastrophe-exposed U.S. accounts that already saw higher rates when they renewed in April, June and July are most likely to see higher rates at their next renewal. Risk Management Solutions Inc.'s updated hurricane model also is affecting rates. Still, loss-free accounts may see flat to only slightly higher rates, reinsurers said at the Sept. 10-15 gathering in Monte Carlo, Monaco.

Despite major catastrophe losses that have totaled at least $70 billion in the first half of this year, low interest rates that are holding back investment returns for many insurers, the threat of inflation and macroeconomic stresses that include the eurozone crisis, the abundance of capital in the industry and the continued ability of reinsurers to release prior-year reserves mean there is unlikely to be an overall market turn in the near future, experts said.

“It is kind of a spotty market,” said James H. Veghte, president and CEO of Hamilton, Bermuda-based XL Group P.L.C.'s reinsurance operations.

While rates for U.S. windstorm-exposed business increased about 7% to 12% at the June and July renewals, “short-tail events rarely turn long-tail markets,” he said.

Mr. Veghte said the industry is benefiting from prior-year reserve releases that are boosting profits, but the reserves will dwindle; that means a market turn will happen, but it is not imminent, he said.

“Positive signs for a firming market” exist, said Jon Andre, global head of reinsurance for Oldwick, N.J.-based A.M. Best Co. Inc. during a media briefing.

He said he expects most of Best's ratings in the next year to be affirmations, but also warned that higher pricing “might go away very quickly” in 2012.

The market likely will not change greatly at the January renewals unless there is a large catastrophe, said Toby Esser, CEO of London-based brokerage Cooper Gay Swett & Crawford Ltd.

If there are no large catastrophes in the next year, there likely would be no major market movement until about 2013, he said.

David Flandro, global head of intelligence at Guy Carpenter & Co. L.L.C. in London, said despite rate increases on some catastrophe-exposed business, there is unlikely to be a “thumping hard market” at the start of the year. And if there are no large losses by year-end, rates could start to “drift” downwards again.

But reinsurers said rates likely will hold firm.

“I can promise you we will not see price decreases” at the January renewals, said Torsten Jeworrek, Germany-based reinsurance CEO of Munich Reinsurance Co., during a media briefing.

Market conditions are “definitely improving (for reinsurers), but a broad market turn is yet to come,” said Stefan Lippe, Zurich-based CEO of Swiss Reinsurance Co., during a media briefing at the Rendez-Vous.

Record low interest rates have been “the most significant shock” to the industry during the past three years, said Brian Gray, chief underwriting officer of Swiss Re, during the briefing. “We face at least the possibility” of a longer period of low rates, he said.

The market will experience a “modest but also broader upswing in the next 15 months, said Swiss Re's Mr. Gray.

“We're all agreed. We're very close” to a market turn, said Charles Dupplin, CEO of Hamilton, Bermuda-based Hiscox Bermuda, a unit of Hiscox Ltd. “We're in the tinderbox period—a spark could set it all off.”

He said the market could undergo a “localized hardening of different things.” He added, however, that a “tinderbox can stay dry for a long time.”

“We are not likely to see a hard market tomorrow, but there are some positive signs” for reinsurers, said Victor Peignet, CEO of the property/casualty operations of Paris-based SCOR S.E.

Uncertainties on the asset side of the balance sheet, coupled with the series of natural catastrophes during the first half of 2011, mean that primary insurers and reinsurers have renewed their focus on maintaining good combined ratios, he said.

And while the reinsurance industry is well-capitalized, that capital will only remain if it is “remunerated properly,” Mr. Peignet said.

Reinsurers no longer can rely on the asset side of the balance sheet to boost results, said Jean-Jacques Henchoz, Zurich-based head of the Europe, Middle East and Africa division of Swiss Re. “There is nowhere to hide. So we need to ensure there is underwriting discipline both in the primary and reinsurance markets,” he said.

“The marketplace is on the cusp of change, but probably needs a catalytic push to bring consensus about change in rates,” said W. Marston Becker, president and CEO of Hamilton, Bermuda-based Alterra Capital Holdings Ltd. Catastrophe losses and low investment returns create pricing stress, he said.

Reinsurers' ability to continue boosting results by releasing reserves from prior years means that “although many of the conditions are there for hardening, we don't expect great hardening anytime soon,” said Bryon Ehrhart, chairman of Chicago-based brokerage Aon Corp.'s Aon Benfield Analytics and Aon Benfield Investment Banking Group.

There are areas where rates are increasing, said Dominic Christian, London-based deputy chairman of Aon Benfield, the reinsurance arm of Aon Corp. He cited the U.K. auto market and the retrocessional market as two that have seen “dislocation and difficulty.”

“Each line of business has its own cycle,” said Stephen Catlin, London-based CEO of Catlin Group Ltd. “We would certainly expect property catastrophe rates to increase at year-end.”

If there were a large loss by the end of the year, rate increases could be significant, he said.

An additional $50 billion industrywide insured loss by year-end probably would be a “capital event” for about half of the market, he said, and impairment of capital likely would lead to rate increases.

Rates are beginning to move upwards for catastrophe-exposed business in Europe, but they are “not big moves,” said Peter Schmidt, CEO of European reinsurance at Catlin Group Ltd.

There are still competitive pressures in the facultative reinsurance market that are preventing large rate increases there, said Swiss Re's Mr. Henchoz.