‘Extremely active’ Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Colorado State
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The Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science on Thursday forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season, which will likely include U.S. storm landfall.
The forecast calls for 23 named storms, compared with a 1991 through 2020 average of 14.4. Eleven hurricanes are forecast against an average of 7.2, with five tabbed as major hurricanes over an average of 3.2, according to forecast data.
The probability of a major category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane landfall along the entire continental U.S. coastline is 62%, with the average from 1880 through 2020 at 43%.
The probability of a major category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane landfall along the U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida south and east of Cedar Key, Florida, is 34%, against a longer average of 21%. The probability for a hit along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west and north of Cedar Key, Florida, westward to Brownsville is 42% compared with an average of 27%.
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are at record warm levels and anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season, providing a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification, the forecast said.
Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions during summer and fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions, the CSU forecast added.
“We anticipate a well-above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” predicted the forecast’s authors, adding “coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”
