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While rates are stabilizing for some property/casualty buyers, organizations with less favorable risk profiles or challenging loss exposures will continue to see rate increases in 2023, USI Insurance Services Inc. said in a report Tuesday.
Hurricane Ian losses, other severe weather events, and various factors including supply chain challenges and inflationary pressures will impact market capacity, available coverage and premium costs, USI said.
Catastrophe-exposed property and non-catastrophe-exposed property with poor loss history or poor risk quality will continue to see rate increases of 25% up to 150% in the first half of 2023, unchanged from the end of 2022.
Optimal property risks will see rates up 5% to 10% by comparison, while for less favorable risks, rates will be up 15% to 50%, also unchanged from the end of 2022, USI said in its 2023 Commercial Property and Casualty Outlook.
Cyber rates are forecast to be up 100% or more for less optimal risks, though more normalized rate changes and overall growth in capacity are expected for more optimal risks, according to USI.
“All organizations, regardless of industry or the location of their operations, will be expected to continue to improve their cyber hygiene” and have strong risk controls, USI said.
The threat of Russian-backed or supported cyberattacks and counterattacks intended to disrupt supply chains, critical infrastructure and institutions will continue to weigh on insurers, USI noted.
For casualty risks, a more competitive rate environment is expected for general liability and products liability with average rate increases in the 5% to 10% range, compared with a range of 10% to 15% in 2022.
A growing number of buyers will experience flat to 5% increases as the year progresses as they assume more risk through higher deductibles or self-insured retentions and more insurers achieve rate adequacy, USI said.
However, umbrella/excess coverages continue to be volatile from a rate perspective, with most insurers employing continued underwriting discipline. The pace of rate deceleration “remains stubbornly tepid, as competition for new business has been much slower to materialize than we expected,” USI said in the report.
The overall public company D&O marketplace, which turned even further toward a true buyer’s market in the second half of 2022, should continue to see a softening market, USI said. It forecasts overall flat to slight premium decreases for D&O liability placements for most insureds with no significant claims.