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Lloyd’s of London predicts England will beat Brazil in the final of the 2022 FIFA World Cup based on a model it used to successfully pick the last two tournament winners.
The model is based in the insurable value of players from each squad. England comes out on top, followed by France and Brazil.
Based on these numbers, the Lloyd’s model predicts that England will finish at the top of Group B, before securing knockout wins against Senegal, France, Spain and then Brazil in the final.
The same model correctly identified Germany as World Cup winner in 2014 and France in 2018.
The assessment of each insurable value comprises a variety of metrics such as wages, sponsorships, age and on-field position.
It found that the average insurable value of one England or France player is more than the entire Costa Rica squad.
The research is designed to emphasize the need for athletes at all levels and in all sports to consider their insurance protection packages and coverage.
Bruce Carnegie-Brown, Lloyd’s chairman, said: “Insurance can play a key role in building confidence and resilience, knowing you’re covered if the worst happens. As Lloyd’s goes for a hat trick of correct World Cup predictions, we’re shining a spotlight on the need for protection at all levels of the game – professional and amateur – to help clubs, competitors and communities make braver decisions both on and off the pitch.”