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Risk Management Solutions Inc., a Moody’s Analytics company, Friday estimated insured losses from Hurricane Ian to be between $53 billion and $74 billion, with a best estimate of $67 billion.
The estimate includes wind and storm surge losses in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia and Virginia, based on an analysis of ensemble footprints in Version 21 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. The estimate also includes impacts from precipitation-induced inland flooding in the same regions, using footprints in the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model, a statement said.
Rival modeler CoreLogic issued an updated estimate of Hurricane Ian losses Friday.
RMS expects the majority of total insured losses from Ian to be driven by wind with a still-sizable portion, up to 25%, of the total insured losses driven by surge and flood. Insured wind losses and losses to the National Flood Insurance Program will be driven by residential lines while surge and inland flood losses to the will be dominated by commercial, industrial and automobile lines, RMS said.
The figures reflect losses from property damage, contents and business interruption; across residential, commercial, industrial, automobile, infrastructure, watercraft and other specialty lines. The estimate also considers the impacts of post-event loss amplification, inflation and nonmodeled sources such as the assignment of benefits and litigation.
Rajkiran Vojjala, vice president of model development at RMS, said in the statement that a sizable portion of the losses from Ian will be associated with post-event loss amplification and inflationary trends.
RMS also estimates the NFIP could see an additional $10 billion in losses from storm surge and inland flooding as a result of the event. NFIP policy take-up is substantial in many coastal areas affected by Ian, up to 50%, according to RMS, areas hard-hit by inland flooding in the event typically have less than 10% NFIP participation, RMS said
Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer at RMS, called the storm “a historic and complex event that will reshape the Florida insurance market for years to come,” in the statement.
Ian made landfall near Cayo Costa, Florida, on Sept. 28 as a strong Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The storm produced sustained winds of 150 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Ian was the ninth named storm of the 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season, the fourth hurricane and the first named storm to make landfall in the U.S. this season.