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Hurricane Ida loss estimate up to $44B: RMS

Hurricane Ida

Risk Management Solutions Inc. said Thursday total onshore and offshore U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Ida are estimated between $31 billion and $44 billion.

RMS estimates $6 billion to $9 billion in insured losses from precipitation-induced flooding in the Atlantic states from Ida in addition to earlier loss estimates of $25 billion to $35 billion for the Gulf of Mexico region.

The bulk of the insured flood losses in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S. — some $4.5 billion to $7.0 billion — will be in the private market, with some $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion in the National Flood Insurance Program.

Losses for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions include property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, as well as sources of post-event loss amplification and leakage of flood losses onto windstorm policies.

The overall industry loss estimate for this event includes wind and storm surge losses in the Gulf of Mexico and precipitation-induced inland flooding in the Gulf Coast states (Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi), Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions, Newark, California-based RMS said.

Total insured losses from Ida reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, automobile, industrial, infrastructure, marine cargo and specie, watercraft, and other specialty lines of business, along with post-event loss amplification (PLA) and non-modeled sources of loss.

The majority of onshore insured losses from Ida will be driven by wind, followed by inland flooding, and then storm surge. Insured wind losses will be driven by residential lines, and insured water losses will be dominated by commercial and industrial lines.

Rajkiran Vojjala, vice president, model development, RMS, said a “sizable” portion of the overall insured losses from Ida will be associated with factors that amplify the loss post-event, including rising construction costs and labor shortages, and prolonged power outages. These factors will only lengthen recovery and repair times, all of which may lead to increased overall claim costs in this event.

Ida made landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana on Sunday, Aug. 29 as a Category 4 hurricane. At landfall, Ida produced sustained winds of 150 miles per hour (241 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center.






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