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Insured losses in the Caribbean from Hurricane Dorian will be between $3.5 billion and $6.5 billion, according to Risk Management Solutions Inc.
Nearly all of the Caribbean insured losses will come from the Bahamas, particularly Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands, the Newark, California-based catastrophe modeler said on Monday.
Insured loss estimates include property damage and business interruption caused by wind and storm surge-driven coastal flooding to residential, commercial, industrial, marine and automobile lines of business, as well as factors for both post-event loss amplification and non-modeled losses, RMS said.
“There is a high degree of uncertainty on the potential impact of post-event loss amplification from this event,” Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic hurricane models, said in the RMS statement.
Business interruption losses are expected to be substantial as hotels and resorts comprise a large portion of the commercial exposure on the two worst hit islands - Grand Bahama and Abaco, according to RMS.
Constrained access to the islands and infrastructure damage, port closures, damaged roads, and severe damage to the airport will also hamper rebuilding efforts, making it “difficult to deliver the necessary labor and materials to impacted areas,” Mr. Waters said.
Insured losses from Hurricane Dorian’s hit to the Caribbean will range between $1.5 billion and $3 billion, catastrophe modeler AIR Worldwide said Friday.