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Risk Management Solutions upgrades U.S. hurricane model

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NEWARK, Calif.—Risk Management Solutions Inc. said Monday that it has made a “significant” upgrade to its U.S. hurricane model by incorporating new data and scientific developments to better quantify hurricane risk.

The Newark, Calif.-based catastrophe modeler said its onshore and offshore wind observation data in the model increased more than tenfold.

It said it also ran “thousands” of storm simulations to help “generate the most detailed modeling study ever designed to understand the way hurricanes decay over land, providing greater insight into hurricanes post-landfall,” RMS said.

RMS said it used more than $18 billion worth of claims data from the past 20 years plus engineering research to determine building vulnerability within the new model. RMS said the data included information gathered from Florida and other Gulf Coast states, including Texas, which suffered extensive damage from Hurricane Ike in 2008.

“Claims analysis from Hurricane Ike reveals that roofs were damaged at much lower wind speeds than expected, given the understanding of construction quality and building codes,” Claire Souch, vp of natural catastrophe and portfolio solutions for RMS, said in a statement. “Following the results of our analysis, we worked closely with engineering consultants to re-examine code enforcement and building practices throughout the U.S. hurricane states, including in regions where there have been a few recent hurricane landfalls to really test building stock.”

The model also has been validated against industry loss reconstructions for more than 20 hurricanes that made landfall and caused some $180 billion in losses since 1985.

As a result of the model changes, RMS said in the statement that it expects to see wind risk rates increase for all hurricane states on an industrywide basis. Further, it said individual insurers will differ considerably depending on the region and line of business they insure.

“It's important to remember that Florida remains a main driver of industry risk, but our view of other regions has changed because of significant new information gathered over the past several years,” Ms. Souch said in the statement. “Texas and the Gulf states now contribute more to the overall risk profile than before.”

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