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Member, Beacon International Group, Ltd.
BOSTON—Hurricane Earl caused an estimated $50 million to $150 million in insured losses to onshore properties in the Virgin Islands, St. Martin/St. Maarten and Puerto Rico, catastrophe modeler AIR Worldwide Corp. said Wednesday.
AIR said nearly half of the total is attributed to St. Martin/St. Maarten, where high winds downed trees and power lines and peeled off roofs and signage.
Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at Boston-based AIR, noted that the storm was heading toward North Carolina.
“Even without making direct landfall, coastal areas of the Outer Banks are likely to feel Earl's impact, including tropical storm-force winds and high waves,” Mr. Dailey said in a statement accompanying the Caribbean estimate. “If Earl tracks further west, storm surge could pose a real threat.”
Meanwhile, Oakland, Calif.-based modeler EQECAT Inc. late Tuesday said Earl's expected track and intensity would cause less than $100 million in insured damage to North Carolina and Virginia. But in a statement, EQECAT also cautioned that forecasted tracks for Earl had been trending to the west the past several days.
“If this pattern continues and the eye of the storm passes much closer to the mainland, Earl could cause significantly more losses onshore,” EQECAT said in the statement. “An evaluation of Category 2 and 3 storms with tracks approximately 100 miles to the west of the current ‘best track' highlights the potential for Earl to cause losses” approaching $500 million.
A major hurricane in the Northeastern United States could prove to be more damaging than a similar one in Florida or the Gulf Coast. A recent Business Insurance webcast examines the unique hurricane risks in the Northeast, as well as what risk managers in that region should do to now prepare for such a storm. The free webcast can be viewed here: http://bit.ly/af0zJt.