MONTE CARLO, Monaco — The reinsurance market will be fragmented at Jan. 1, 2014 renewals, with rate decreases likely for lines of business attractive to third-party capital investors, such as property catastrophe, while loss-affected lines will see rates stabilize or rise.

For the first time, reinsurance experts say, rates offered by third-party capital instruments, such as insurance-linked securities, were in many cases comparable or lower than those offered by traditional reinsurers during renewals in June and July.

This had the effect of pushing down rates in property catastrophe lines, notably in Florida, and the trend likely will continue at the Jan. 1 renewals, industry executives said while gathered at the Rendez-Vous de Septembre reinsurance meeting in Monte Carlo, Monaco, this month.

In addition, rates for other lines may come under downward pressure as traditional reinsurers seek to deploy more capital in other lines of business that have not been as affected by the influence of third-party capital.

At the June renewals, rates for property catastrophe reinsurance fell as much as 15%, said David Priebe, vice chairman of reinsurance brokerage Guy Carpenter & Co. L.L.C. At July renewals, rates for property catastrophe business fell by as much as 30% for loss-free accounts, he said.

Although the effect of an influx of third-party capital into the industry has been less pronounced on rates for business outside the United States, a side effect of the surge in new capital has been a reduction in some rates elsewhere as reinsurers seek to deploy capacity into other lines, he said.

“Price reductions are good news for buyers, but so is a choice of products and sellers,” Mr. Priebe said.

If there are no major catastrophe losses between now and the end of the year, then “we expect continued rate decreases, but prices are still adequate,” said Martyn Street, a director at Fitch Ratings Ltd. in London.

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Rates for European windstorm programs have been largely flat or softening in recent months, Mr. Street said. The recent flooding in areas of Central Europe likely will result in “some adjustments to pricing,” though it remains to be seen how big those increases will be, he said.

Pricing outcomes at the Jan. 1 renewals likely will “remain fragmented,” Mr. Street said.

The market for treaty property/casualty reinsurance remains fragmented around the world, with factors such as losses and third-party capital affecting rate increase or decreases, said Victor Peignet, CEO of Paris-based Scor Global P&C.

He said that overall for Scor's portfolio, the Jan. 1 renewals will be flat.

It is, however, difficult to talk about the market in general, said Denis Kessler, CEO of Scor S.E., because it is so fragmented.

Rates for U.S. property catastrophe business fell at the midyear renewals, said Ulrich Wallin, CEO of Hannover Re S.E., though he noted that, in his company's view, those rates still were “commensurate with the risks.”

“The markets are quite different in different areas,” Mr. Wallin said.

Floods in Canada and areas of Central Europe likely will have a stabilizing effect on rates there, he said, but the continued low-interest-rate environment and its effect on reinsurers' investment returns likely will, among other factors, contribute to a disciplined — and overall stable — market at the Jan. 1 renewals.

The absence of major losses in the aviation market likely means rates for that sector will remain flat or fall slightly, said Jurgen Graber, a member of Hannover Re's executive board.

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While there have been no major marine losses in 2013, the continued aftereffects of the $1 billion loss of the Costa Concordia cruise liner that sank last January and Superstorm Sandy last October likely means marine reinsurance rates will continue to harden, in particular for excess-of-loss coverage, Mr. Graber said.

For Japanese business, the tsunami in 2011, coupled with floods in Thailand and earthquakes in New Zealand, mean that rates remain stable, said André Arrago, a member of the executive board of Hannover Re.

Overall, rates at the Jan. 1 renewals likely will be flat, said Matthias Weber, group chief underwriting officer of Swiss Re Ltd.

Swiss Re thinks that demand for natural catastrophe coverage will continue to increase and that — although rates will decrease in the short term partly because of the influence of third-party capital — overall rates for those covers likely will stabilize in 2014, he said.

Rates for U.S. liability coverage likely will start to harden, partly because of economic conditions and a slowdown in companies' reserve releases, he said.

Rates for other lines of business likely will remain stable, he said.

Rates probably will fall for those areas of the reinsurance market where alternative capital participates, such as catastrophe and retrocession business, said John Berger, CEO of Third Point Reinsurance Ltd. It remains to be seen whether that capital diversifies into other areas of business, he said.

It is possible that traditional reinsurers will redeploy capital into other lines of business, thereby increasing competition in those segments and putting downward pressure on rates, said Torsten Jeworrek, a board member of Munich Reinsurance Co.