Colorado State ups Atlantic hurricane season forecast

The Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University in Fort Collins has increased its forecast to a well-above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season this year.

The updated forecast released Friday calls for 20 named storms compared with an average of 14.4 for the period from 1991 through 2020. This includes 10 hurricanes against an average of 7.2, and five major hurricanes versus an average of 3.2.

Named storm days are pegged at 95 compared with an average of 69.4; hurricane days at 40 against an average of 27; and 11 major hurricane days compared with an average of 7.4.

“We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” said a brief statement attributed research scientist Philip J. Klotzbach, professor Michael M. Bell and graduate research assistant Alex DesRosiers.

They said either cool neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation or weak La Niña conditions will predominate over the next several months and that sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are above normal, while most of the subtropical and mid-latitude eastern North Atlantic is much warmer than normal.