Effects of climate change on hurricane risk explored

AIR Worldwide, the catastrophe modeler, released a report Monday in collaboration with experts from the Brookings Institution and Axis Capital Holdings Ltd. exploring the effects of climate change on hurricane risk in the United States by 2050.

 

“Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on hurricane activity in the United States, primarily through an increase in sea surface temperatures,” the report said, highlighting an increase in the frequency of the strongest storms, and additional storm surge flooding due to sea level rise.

 

AIR used its Hurricane Model for the United States, which considers wind, storm surge and precipitation-induced flooding, together with AIR’s database of property exposure, for the analysis.

 

“This analysis points to increased damage and losses from hurricanes without factoring in any changes to the concentration of property exposure along the coast,” Dr. Peter Sousounis, vice president and director of climate change research at AIR Worldwide, said in a statement issued with the report.

 

The report also shows what future hurricane-generated storm surge losses around New York, Houston and Miami might look like “as indicators of the additional risk created by rising sea levels,” the statement said. By 2050, sea level rise may increase storm surge losses by anywhere from one-third to a factor of almost two in such cases.

 

“Climate-related risks are among the most serious issues facing the world today,” Albert Benchimol, president and CEO at Axis, said in the statement. “Investing in ongoing research like today’s, in partnership with AIR and Brookings scholars, is essential.”