KCC launches multiperil winter storm model

Karen Clark & Co., the Boston-based catastrophe modeling firm, on Monday released a U.S. winter storm model that captures loss potential from the subperils of snow and ice, freezing temperatures and high winds.

The model includes live event coverage so that insurers can predict their claims and losses from storms as they are unfolding, KCC said in a statement.

On average, winter storms cause nearly $3 billion in insured loss annually and can cause over $20 billion in extreme events, KCC said.

The winter storm reference model includes different classifications of winter storms, not just typical Nor’easters but also Arctic high-pressure systems, KCC said.

KCC’s scientists combined advanced numerical weather prediction data and techniques with historical winter storm climatology.

“The benefit of using NWP is that we can capture the specific atmospheric conditions that lead to each subperil,” Dr. Daniel Ward, KCC senior meteorologist, said in the statement.

KCC has reproduced 35 historical events and generated over 19,000 additional events with NWP techniques to create a stochastic event set that represents potential future winter storms that are meteorologically feasible but have not yet occurred, he said.

For each event, three high-resolution footprints are generated: one for snow and ice accumulation, one for wind and one for freeze.

With the live-event coverage, KCC meteorologists monitor the daily weather and develop event footprints for major events so insurers can proactively track the annual aggregate losses from winter storm activity against their portfolio of risks, KCC said.

The KCC US Winter Storm Reference Model is implemented on the RiskInsight open loss modeling platform, and all components are transparent to model users, KCC said.