Recession, job losses likely to continue for months: NCCI

Much of the job losses from the nationwide shutdown in March have been recovered, but the recession is likely to continue, affecting employment levels for months or years, according to a report released Monday by the National Council on Compensation Insurance.

In its third-quarter 2020 briefing, the Boca Raton, Florida-based NCCI noted that while about half of the jobs lost have recovered, rising to -7.6% from a low of -16.3% in April, four service sectors — leisure and hospitality, retail trade, professional and other services, and education and health — account for a high number of employment shortfalls in every state. Construction and manufacturing are also seeing lower than usual employment this fall compared with other years, according to the report.  

Average weekly earnings rose 5% during the pandemic to $1,027 between March and April of 2020, due to the fact that layoffs were concentrated in low-wage sectors, but this weekly earnings growth is expected to slow through the remainder of 2020 and into 2021.

Increasingly, temporary layoffs are becoming permanent, and the percent of unemployed workers who were permanently laid off has increased to 30% from 9% in April, and three times the number of permanently laid off workers in September 2019.

NCCI predicts that employment gaps will continue, ending the year around 7% below what it would look like in a pandemic-free year, and will have more impact on smaller businesses than larger businesses.

“After relatively rapid job recoveries from initial state reopening during the summer, we may now be entering a harder stage of economic recovery as the pace of job recovery has slowed and an increasing share of unemployed workers do not expect their old jobs to come back,” according to the report.

More insurance and workers compensation news on the coronavirus crisis here.