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NOAA predicts 60% chance of above-normal hurricane season

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NOAA

There is a 60% chance of an above-normal U.S. hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season, according to the forecast issued Thursday by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. This may include three to six major hurricanes, of Category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher.

An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes, NOAA said, adding it provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

Climate conditions including El Niño conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Niña, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity, NOAA said.

Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon all increase the likelihood for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA added, saying similar conditions have been producing more active seasons since the current high-activity era began in 1995.

“NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions reveals a recipe for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year,” Neil Jacobs, acting NOAA administrator, said in the statement.

NOAA this year is looking to upgrade its abilities, including using new data from satellites and radar from NOAA’s coastal Doppler data network to help produce better forecasts of hurricane track and intensity during the critical watch and warning time frame.

The Climate Prediction Center will update the 2020 Atlantic seasonal outlook in August prior to the historic peak of the season, NOAA said.

Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science also predicted an above-average 2020 hurricane season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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