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AIR, RMS estimate Ciara-Sabine losses top €1 billion

Ciara-Sabine storm

Insured losses due to wind from Winter Storm Ciara-Sabine will range between €1.1 billion and €1.9 billion (U.S. $1.2 billion and U.S. $2.05 billion), catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide, a Verisk business, said in a statement Friday.

The majority of losses are expected in Germany, France and the United Kingdom, AIR Worldwide said.

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates include physical damage from wind to property — residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural and auto — including structures and their contents, as well as business interruption and additional living expenses, the statement said.

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates do not include losses due to coastal or inland flooding; additional living expenses for residential claims for all modeled countries, except the U.K.; losses to uninsured properties; losses to infrastructure; and demand surge.

Separately, RMS Risk Management Services Inc. estimates that insured property losses from the storm will likely total between €1.1 billion and €1.8 billion (U.S. $1.2 billion and U.S. $1.95 billion).
RMS said losses in Germany will account for around 50% of the total loss, while Ciara also affected France, the U.K., the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria and the Czech Republic between February 8-11.

The RMS loss estimate is based on a hazard reconstruction using the version 15.0 RMS Europe Windstorm Models and includes damage to property, auto, forestry, agriculture and direct business interruption but excludes losses from damage to infrastructure.

RMS said it does not expect any post-event loss amplification and anticipates low business interruption losses. Losses from auto are not expected to exceed more than five percent of the total loss, it said.

“Windstorm Ciara is very likely to be the first billion-Euro windstorm of this season,” Michèle Lai, product manager for Europe Climate Models at RMS, said in the statement. “Our loss range represents the current uncertainty in the event loss, which is primarily driven by prolonged, squally gusts that locally affected several regions across the continent.”