Civil unrest on the rise globally: Report
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Civil unrest is rising globally, according to the most recent Civil Unrest Index from Verisk Maplecroft, part of Verisk Analytics Inc.
The risk consultant’s Political Outlook 2020 identifies 47 jurisdictions that over the past year have witnessed a significant uptick in protests, a trend that intensified during the last quarter of 2019, the report said. Troubled spots included locations as diverse as Hong Kong, Chile, Nigeria, Sudan, Haiti and Lebanon.
Verisk Maplecroft projects that 75 out of the 125 countries in its forecasting database will on average see an increase in civil unrest during the next six months, the report said.
Countries are now better prepared to deal with such rising unrest after having initially responded with repression or token concession, which were not effective, said Sam Haynes, head of risk analytics, speaking during a Thursday webinar about the report.
The number of countries rated as an extreme risk in the Index jumped from 12 in 2019 to 20 in early 2020. The list includes Ethiopia, India, Lebanon, Nigeria, Pakistan and Zimbabwe, the report said.
China-U.S tensions also remain a focus and are expected to worsen this year.
“We expect that strategic competition between the world’s two largest economies will steadily rise in 2020, in line with a long-term shift towards more adversarial bilateral relations and fueled by the U.S. presidential election,” Verisk Maplecroft said.
Hugo Brennan, principal Asia Analyst, said during the webinar that “who is in the White house will have an important role to play on the direction of U.S.-China relations.”
“A victory for the Democrats would not necessarily alter the fundamental trajectory of U.S.-China relations,” he said.
