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Property/casualty premiums will rise by “around 3%” in both 2020 and 2021, according to a report Wednesday from Swiss Re Ltd.
“Pricing has strengthened, driven by rising loss costs in property catastrophe and U.S. casualty, and we expect this to continue,” the reinsurer said in its Global Economic and Insurance Outlook 2020/21 report.
Growth from Asia, particularly China, which is expected to make up 60% of all additional premiums in Asia over the next 10 years, will help drive global growth, the report said.
Low interest rates are “set to stay,” said Swiss Re, adding it expects one more U.S. interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2020.
Global economic growth is expected to slow over the next two years, with the number one risk to the outlook being the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war, Swiss Re said.
U.S. growth is forecast to be 1.6% and the euro area at just 0.9% in 2020, Swiss Re said.
“The global economy’s resilience to future shocks has declined and in our view, new growth recipes are needed,” the report said.
Emerging economies, however, will grow faster, it said.
“We expect the contribution from emerging markets to global growth will grow as the outlook for advanced economies continues to cool,” Swiss Re said. “Asia will remain the motor of global growth, with emerging Asia continuing to outperform other regions.”
MONTE CARLO, Monaco — The upward trend in reinsurance pricing that began last year looks set to continue during the year-end renewal season as primary insurance prices increase and reinsurers seek to push rates higher following two years of significant catastrophe losses.