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NCCI predicts 3.9% decrease in net written premium for 2019

Posted On: Nov. 12, 2019 2:39 PM CST


Correction: An earlier version of this story listed an incorrect figure. NCCI expects premium in 2019 to decrease by an average of 10%.

The National Council on Compensation Insurance released updated workers compensation financial results Tuesday, predicting a 3.9% decrease in net written premium for private insurers in calendar year 2019 for a total of $41.6 billion in net written premium based on statutory data reported through second quarter 2019 — a decline from 43.3 billion in 2018.

Boca Raton, Florida-based NCCI estimates that the combined ratio for the industry will be approximately 87%, representing the second lowest combined ratio in recent history and the sixth consecutive underwriting gain for workers compensation, said the ratings agency in a statement.

Recent decreases in rates and loss costs have impacted premium growth, and NCCI said it expects premium in 2019 to decrease by an average of 10% as a result of loss cost filings made in NCCI jurisdictions.

The ratings bureau also predicts that workers compensation investment gain on insurance transactions will be approximately 9.2% of net earned premium, which is below the long-term average of 12.8% since 1998, and that operating gain for calendar year 2019, based on industry data, will be 26%, also exceeding the 7.2% long-term average pretax operating gain since 1998.