Job growth trends could affect workers comp: NCCI

An unemployment rate below 4% nationwide and projected job growth of just under 2% for 2018 are just two factors that could impact the workers compensation sector, according to a second-quarter economic impact report issued Wednesday by the National Council for Compensation Insurance.

The report used U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showing an increase of 155,000 jobs in March and preliminary estimates of 159,000 and 223,000 in April and May along with gross domestic product growth showing the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2018, among other sources. It is a quarterly glance at factors that typically affect workers comp, according to the report.

Actual job increases in April and May were 164,000 and 223,000, respectively, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The NCCI report found that:

• Average weekly wage growth for 2017 was 3.4%. After dropping to 1.2% in 2016, wage growth last year rebounded to the 3% range experienced in 2014 and 2015. In addition, 3.4% actual wage growth for 2017 is a substantial increase over projections.
   
• Medical inflation is expected to increase from 1.4% in 2017 to above 2% in 2018 and is projected to continue to rise in 2019.
   
• Short-maturity interest rates rose 25 basis points, and long-maturity interest rates rose 11 basis points in the last three months. This has continued the flattening of the yield curve observed over the past year.