Hurricane forecasters predict average 2018 storm season

Predictions for the 2018 hurricane season range from close to normal to slightly above average, according to weather experts.

In April, Colorado State University predicted that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season would experience “slightly above-average activity.” The forecast called for 14 named tropical storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater during the 2018 Atlantic tropical weather season. The university pegged the probability of at least one major hurricane in the category 3 to 5 range making landfall along the entire continental U.S. coastline at 63% compared with a 52% average for the last century.

In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast a 35% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. The center predicted a 70% likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms, of which five to nine could become hurricanes, including one to four major hurricanes.

In May, Earth Networks Inc., a Germantown, Maryland-based company operating weather and climate sensor networks, predicted a “closer to normal” hurricane season: 10 to 15 tropical storms, five to eight hurricanes, with two to four major hurricanes. In 2017, there were 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes, three of which hit the United States.

“There’s a range of forecasts out there about how active the hurricane season might be, and as usual there’s a range of opinion,” said Mike Van Slooten, head of market analysis for Aon Benfield International in London. “In total, if you look at the average across all of the forecasts, this seems to be a fairly average season. I don’t think there’s an expectation that it’s going to be unusually above average this year.”