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Modeling capabilities adjust for new threats


Technology can play a role in helping to enhance security against and mitigate damage caused by terrorist threats as sophisticated analytical tools aim to help companies identify exposures.

“As deterministic (scenario) and risk aggregation analytics become more robust, risk managers have access to a new scale of data which serves to identify unforeseen risk concentrations within a company’s property portfolio, proximity to target risks and likelihood of attack modes,” said Wendy Peters, executive vice president of financial solutions-terrorism and political violence for Willis Towers Watson P.L.C. in New York.

Manchester and the recent London Bridge knife attacks validated assumptions about terrorism trends: ISIS’ main goal is causing as many casualties as possible, she said.

Marsh L.L.C. offers a modeling component for terrorism risk through its Marsh Risk Consulting practice, according to Tarique Nageer, terrorism placement advisory and property practice leader for Marsh USA Inc. in New York.

“Clients can use deterministic modeling to help measure the potential impact on property” from a given peril such as a backpack bomb, he said.

Locations that may be more prone to an attack, such as public spaces, music venues and places of worship, can be rated and scored by analysts using qualitative and quantitative data, Ms. Peters said.

The area of damage can be modeled using a range of explosive devices, such as a backpack bomb or 25-ton truck bomb. Financial loss from a range of attack scenarios — explosives, active shooter or nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological — can also be modeled, she said, and casualty loss can be modeled by analyzing metrics such as foot traffic, capacity and demographic information.

“The increase in attacks may see an increase in focus on these analytics,” Ms. Peters said.