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FORT COLLINS, Colo.—This year's Atlantic basin hurricane activity should be below the 1981-2010 average, according a prediction issued by the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University on Wednesday.
The Colorado State team said the combination of a cool tropical Atlantic and the potential development of El Niño led them to predict somewhat below-average hurricane activity this year.
The team expects 10 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin this year, compared with an average of 12 during the 1981-2010 period. Only four of those storms are expected to grow into hurricanes, compared with an average of 6.5 during the 1981-2010 period. The team predicts two of the hurricanes will grow into major hurricanes, packing sustained winds of at least 111 mph, the same as the average for the 1981-2010 period.
The team also said there is a 42% probability that a major hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline this year, compared with an average of 52% for the past century.