Tropical Storm Risk predicts more active Atlantic hurricane season

LONDON—The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be more active than average, according to catastrophe mapper and predictor Tropical Storm Risk.

London-based TSR said Tuesday that Atlantic basin and U.S. landfall hurricane activity in 2011 likely will be 25% above the long-term norm.

In its forecast for the 2011 hurricane season, TSR said there is a 55% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 29% probability of a near-normal hurricane season, and only a 16% chance of a below-average season.

TSR said there are likely to be 14 tropical storms, including eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.

There is a 59% chance of above-normal U.S. landfall of tropical storms, according to TSR. There are likely to be four tropical storm strikes on the United States, including two hurricanes, TSR said.

“At present, all main climate indicators point to the 2011 hurricane season being above norm but less active for basin activity than 2010, and more active for U.S. landfalling activity than 2010,” said Mark Saunders, a professor at University College London and head of TSR, in the statement.

“If a major hurricane does not strike the United States in 2011, it will be the first occasion going back to at least 1900 where six consecutive years have passed without such an event,” he added.

TSR is affiliated with University College London and funded by Aon Benfield, the reinsurance arm of Aon Corp.; RSA Group P.L.C.; and Crawford & Co.