CSU forecasts 16 named storms for Atlantic hurricane season

FORT COLLINS, Colo.—This year's Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be an active one thanks to the placement of El Niño and additional factors, according to a forecast released Wednesday by Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project.

The team updated its December forecast to project 16 named storms in the Atlantic basin this season, down from 17, with nine of those storms reaching hurricane status.

Of the nine, five hurricanes are expected to reach “major” status, which means a Category 3, 4 or 5. Further, CSU meteorologists said there is a 72% probability that one of those storms will make landfall in the United States, and a 48% probability that a storm will strike the East Coast.

‘Significantly' more activity

CSU said in its report that this year's hurricane season will have “significantly” more activity than the average season from 1950-2000. CSU's Tropical Meteorology Project has been making hurricane forecasts for 28 years.

Based on the history of the Atlantic basin cycle, active hurricane seasons are expected to continue for another decade or two, CSU meteorologists wrote in the report, after which the Atlantic “should enter a quieter hurricane period” as experienced during the 1970-1994 period.