EQECAT estimates Japan insured losses at $12B-$25B

OAKLAND, Calif.—Total insured losses from last week’s earthquake and tsunami in eastern Japan will range between $12 billion and $25 billion, catastrophe modeler EQECAT Inc. said Wednesday.

Oakland, Calif.-based EQECAT said between $2 billion and $4 billion of the total insured loss is expected to be ceded to the Japan Earthquake Reinsurance Co. Ltd. pool, which will reduce the losses of nonlife property insurers in Japan.

EQECAT said its estimate “encompasses the effects of earthquake shaking, ensuing tsunami and fires, and losses to automobiles, marine, life and personal accident lines.”

According to EQECAT, the largest component of insured loss will be covered by the property insurance market. In a breakdown of losses by line of business—excluding losses associated with the ongoing nuclear emergency at power plants in the affected area, EQECAT estimates that earthquake shake losses will range between $8 billion and $15 billion, with about 25% ceded to the JERP. Automobile losses will range up to $1 billion, marine losses between $1 billion and $3 billion, life insurance losses between $2 billion and $3 billion and personal accident between $1 billion and $2 billion.