More hurricane activity possible in Atlantic: Modeler

NEWARK, Calif.—This year’s hurricane season has been fairly quiet so far, but conditions in the Atlantic Ocean remain ripe for further activity, catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions Inc. said Wednesday.

Ocean temperatures still are above average, RMS said in a statement, adding that tropical cyclone formation in November typically occurs in the Caribbean Sea, where Hurricane Tomas is located.

Hurricane Tomas was the fifth hurricane to form during October and the 12th hurricane of the season. No hurricanes have made landfall in the United States so far this year.

Since 1950, some 20 hurricanes have formed this late in the season, but only four have reached major hurricane status, Newark, Calif.-based RMS said. All of those hurricanes were located in the Caribbean Sea and affected mainly that region.

Outside the Caribbean Sea, sea surface temperatures are cooler and fall below the threshold of 26.5 degrees Celsius (79.7 degrees Fahrenheit) needed to support tropical cyclone activity, RMS said.

“Sea surface temperatures are a major factor in tropical cyclone formation, but are not the only ingredient,” Neena Saith, senior catastrophe response manager at RMS, said in the statement. “The levels of wind shear, which can suppress formation and are expected to reduce over the next few days across the Caribbean, will play a key role in hurricane activity over the coming weeks.”