London forecaster sees active Atlantic hurricane season

LONDON—The Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1 is expected to spawn an unusually high number of storms, experts said in a Tuesday forecast.

London-based Tropical Storm Risk, which maps and predicts tropical cyclone activity through its affiliation with University College London and collaboration with Aon Benfield’s research operations, said there is a 77% probability that this year’s Atlantic Ocean hurricane season will be above-normal.

Twelve hurricanes are expected, with four of those being intense, according to TSR. That compares with long-term norms of nine hurricanes in a season, with three of those being intense, TSR said in a statement.

TSR said it expects two hurricanes and three tropical storms to reach the U.S. mainland this season, slightly above normal.

“Every main climate indicator points to the 2010 hurricane season being active,” said Mark Saunders, a University College London professor who heads TSR. “If La Niña develops during the second half of 2010, the above-norm hurricane levels will be even higher.”

La Niña is a weather phenomenon in which the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean cool and affect the weather.

TSR’s report on the upcoming hurricane season is at www.aon.mediaroom.com.