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Member, Beacon International Group, Ltd.
ARLINGTON, Va.There's a 75% chance that this year's hurricane season will be more active than normal, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said last week.
NOAA's prediction, which was issued at Ronald Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Va., calls for the formation of between 13 and 17 named storms, seven to 10 of which will grow to hurricane-strength. Three to five of those could become major hurricanes packing winds of at least 111 mph, NOAA predicts.
Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
NOAA's predictions track those of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University at Fort Collins. In its April 3 forecast, the Colorado State team predicted that 17 named storms would form, nine of which would become hurricanes, of which five would grow into intense hurricanes.
The Colorado State team will issue its final preseason forecast on May 31.
In a statement accompanying its prediction, NOAA noted that last year's hurricane season did not prove to be nearly as active as most forecasters believed it would be.
"Last year, season hurricane predictions proved to be too high when an unexpected El Nino rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen," said NOAA in its statement. "When storms did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water and away from land."
Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced the National Hurricane Research Initiative Act in the House of Representatives last week.
The bill, which would provide up to $4.35 billion in funding for hurricane research, closely resembles a similar measure introduced in the Senate by Florida's senators earlier this year.