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TSR warns of increased 2007 hurricane activity

Posted On: Mar. 20, 2007 12:00 AM CST

LONDON—Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity will be 75% higher than usual this year according to Tropical Storm Risk, the consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting, led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College, London.

TSR's March forecast is the highest since their records began 23 years ago. It predicts Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity to be around 75% above the 1950-2006 norm in 2007. This is an increase from the 60% forecast issued last December.

The main predictions include an 86% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season; 17 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole (with nine of these being hurricanes and four being intense hurricanes); an 85% probability of above-normal US landfalling hurricane activity; five tropical storm strikes on the U.S.; two tropical storm strikes on the Caribbean Lesser Antilles.

In a statement, TSR explained that, "the two main factors which influenced [the] hurricane forecast are the expected values in August and September for the speed of trade winds which blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and the temperature of the sea waters between West Africa and the Caribbean where many hurricanes develop."