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Member, Beacon International Group, Ltd.
LONDONThe Tropical Storm Risk consortium has added quantitative and probabilistic rainfall forecasts for tropical storms worldwide to its Tropical Storm Tracker.
The London-based TSR consortium includes experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Center. The new rainfall forecast feature, which complements TSR's existing suite of storm tracking software, is available through the www.tropicalstormrisk.com Web site.
The rainfall forecast product is intended for use by insurers, reinsurers and risk managers, and is designed to allow them to monitor threatening tropical storms, assess the risk of excessive rainfall and the potential for inland flooding.
Among the new product's features are:
n Quantitative rainfall forecasts of total rainfall at a given point over one to five days.
n Probabilistic rainfall forecasts of the likelihood that rainfall at a given location will exceed two inches, five inches and eight inches over one to five days.
n Updated forecasts every 12 hours.
n Observed rainfall rates and totals for the last three hours and last seven days.
Examples of property losses exceeding $1 billion from tropical storm rainfall include Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, Typhoon Maemi in 2003, and Typhoon Songda and Hurricane Ivan in 2004.
Examples of TSR's new rainfall forecast product applied to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Katrina can be viewed under the "Storm Rainfall Demo" link on the rainfall homepage area at www.tropicalstormrisk.com.