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Falling oil prices, political unrest top 2015's international risks: Marsh

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Falling oil prices, political unrest top 2015's international risks: Marsh

Falling oil prices, political violence and separatist movements will influence the global risk landscape in 2015, broker Marsh L.L.C. said in a report released on Wednesday.

Produced in conjunction with risk analysis firm Business Monitor International, Marsh's 2015 Political Risk Map and report scores 170 countries based on three political, macroeconomic and operational risks. The report found countries from the Middle East and Africa as the riskiest business environments, with Central African Republic, Sudan, Syria, Afghanistan and Guinea-Bissau topping the list as the most unstable countries.

Moreover, the report indentified several broad trends increasing global instability. For example, falling oil prices could lead to greater instability in places such as Iran and Venezuela, the report sates. “In the second half of 2014, prices for Brent crude oil fell sharply, from $110 per barrel in June to less than $70 per barrel in December,” the report states. “Venezuela, where oil accounts for more than 95% of exports and more than half of government revenues, is particularly vulnerable.”

Another risk for the coming year is political violence, the report finds. While political turmoil has been a concern in the Middle East and North Africa in recent years, it has now spread to formerly peaceful regions such as Ukraine and Thailand. Indeed, the report notes that even the largely non-violent protests in Hong Kong merit close scrutiny going forward. “Although the protests have so far been peaceful, their fundamental drivers — primarily, Beijing's involvement in vetting candidates for the 2017 election of a new chief executive — have not yet been addressed,” the report states. “This could signal continued unrest ahead of the election.”

Similarly, the attempts by separatist movements in Scotland and Catalonia to secede from the U.K. and Spain, respectively, may affect investments in those countries, the report states. “In most cases, it is unlikely that these movements will lead to new states in the near term,” the report states. “But the mere existence of such groups and associated political uncertainty — including the potential for violence in some cases — can have a significant effect on foreign investment.”

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