Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd. said Wednesday that factors prompted by the pandemic could result in a decline of 3.5% for commercial auto insurance premiums written in 2020.

Commercial net written premiums could slide 1.4% for all of 2020 due to the economic slowdown, while remaining flat in 2021. Commercial auto could return to growth, but with a quarterly rise of only about 1.0% in 2022, Deloitte said.

Drivers are driving less as a result of the pandemic, the report showed.

Coronavirus-related shutdowns and restrictions, along with the resulting slowdown in economic activity, led to a year-over-year drop of 40.2% in miles driven by U.S. drivers in April 2020 and 25.5% in May 2020, according to the latest available data from the Federal Highway Administration, Deloitte said in its report Wednesday.

The consultant asserted that such reductions could continue in the future.

“Although reports suggest that driving trends have started to normalize in recent months, persistent health concerns, a greater acceptance of remote working, and an ongoing economic slowdown could result in reduced vehicle usage for quite some time,” Deloitte said.

While the personal auto sector deployed premium credits to many consumers in the early months of the pandemic, this is not suited to commercial risks due to the differentiation among clients.

Commercial premiums, however, are likely to be blunted at least in the near term, Deloitte said, noting “an overall decline in commerce due to a pandemic-triggered slowdown in the economy will likely keep premiums below prepandemic levels at least until 2022.”

The reduction in traffic, however, should lead to fewer claims.

“There is a silver lining, however, for auto insurers: Fewer miles are being driven. Reduction in traffic density normally lowers claim frequency, since roads are safer with fewer vehicles. Ultimately, this should help improve the industry’s bottom line,” Deloitte said.

More insurance and risk management news on the coronavirus crisis here.