Help

BI’s Article search uses Boolean search capabilities. If you are not familiar with these principles, here are some quick tips.

To search specifically for more than one word, put the search term in quotation marks. For example, “workers compensation”. This will limit your search to that combination of words.

To search for a combination of terms, use quotations and the & symbol. For example, “hurricane” & “loss”.

Login Register Subscribe

CFOs upbeat on US economy despite protectionist chatter

Reprints
CFOs upbeat on US economy despite protectionist chatter

WASHINGTON — Global chief financial officers feel confident about the U.S. economy but are concerned about the potential for trade wars and other geopolitical risks, as well as cyber threats, according to a new survey.

A new report by Zurich Insurance Group Ltd., Ernst & Young L.L.P. and the Atlantic Council found that 61% of CFOs felt confident or extremely confident about investing in the U.S., while 71% expected continued improvement in the U.S. business environment over the next three years. A positive economic outlook, deregulation and the passage of the first overhaul of the U.S. tax code in about 30 years contributed to the optimistic outlook, according to the report, Borders vs. Barriers: Navigating Uncertainty in the U.S. Business Environment, published Thursday.

For example, 68% of CFOs say U.S. tax reform will have a positive impact on their bottom line, and nearly half of the companies anticipating tax savings said they would use them to invest in property plant and equipment.

“The clear overriding sentiment is optimism,” Dalynn Hoch, CFO of Zurich North America in Schaumburg, Illinois, said Tuesday at a Washington event unveiling the report. “But that optimism is laced with a sense of uncertainty.”

The CFOs anticipate a rise in in protectionism, with 68% of those surveyed expecting U.S. protectionism to increase in the next three years and 46% indicating this would have a negative impact on investments, according to the report.

“Protectionism is a loosely used word, and the president doesn’t quite see it that way,” Frederick Kempe, president and chief executive officer for the Atlantic Council in Washington, said at the event, referring to President Donald Trump’s protectionist stance. “He sees it as wrongs that need to be righted.”

“There’s no question that global companies want to be in countries that are globally engaged,” said Nancy McLernon, president and CEO of the Washington-based Organization for International Investment.

For example, 63% of companies expect increased U.S. scrutiny of cross-border mergers and acquisitions, with 39% anticipating increased scrutiny to negatively impact investment. But that number increases to 48% for “very large” companies — which are generally those well-positioned to pursue cross-border M&A, according to the report.

Meanwhile, 68% expect more restrictive immigration policies in the United States, with 42% of companies expecting such policies would negatively influence investment, according to the report.

“I’ve been mystified that you’ve had markets so buoyant and geopolitical risks so high,” Mr. Kempe said.

“The biggest uncertainty right now is that people don’t know what the U.S role is on certain issues,” he added.

In addition, 65% of CFOs expect an increase in cyber threats to the United States while 63% anticipate increased levels of innovation in countries other than the United States. Companies expect both of these factors to have a moderately negative influence on US investment, at 41% and 37%, respectively.

For cyber risks, scenario planning and conducting tabletop exercises are critical, Ms. Hoch said. “How is the management team prepared to respond to that, and are you putting them through the scenarios, as we do with financial planning?” she said.

As chief financial officer for a company in the insurance sector, the potential for a more isolationist approach that could have unintended consequences or ramifications is a concern, Ms. Hoch said. For example, China has threatened to respond to tariffs imposed by the U.S. government with tariffs on soybeans for American producers. Such a move would have an impact on Zurich since it acquired crop insurer Rural Community Insurance Agency Inc. and its subsidiary Rural Community Insurance Co., which had $1.9 billion in gross written premiums in 2015, in 2016.

The risk of tariffs that impact the insurer’s clients “immediately becomes our risk because we provide the protection,” she said.

“But I don’t think the sky is falling,” Ms. McLernon said, citing tax reform and deregulatory efforts by the Trump administration. “I think companies see some positive things in the United States.”

Companies such as Zurich that derive a major share of their revenue from the U.S. market will continue to invest domestically, but there is more pessimism among companies that have not invested in the United States, Ms. Hoch said.

For example, 48.3% of companies not investing in the United States were concerned about increased cyber threats posed by entities hostile to the U.S. compared with 32.8% of companies investing in the U.S. In addition, 51.4% of companies not investing in the U.S. were wary of increased reputational risk of using a foreign brand in a U.S. market compared with 34.9% of companies investing in the U.S.

The findings were drawn from a survey of nearly 500 CFOs from 30 countries carried out in February and March 2018, according to the report.

Read Next

  • One year later: Trump administration continues regulation cuts

    The Trump administration will continue to cut back on employment-related regulation while establishing a less adversarial relationship with businesses, say experts, examining the past year’s developments and current outlook on the administration’s one-year anniversary.