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Insurers face difficult financial forecast for 2016

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Insurers face difficult financial forecast for 2016

Insurers across the world face a difficult year, according to an analysis released by Standard & Poor’s Corp.’s S&P Global Ratings unit.

“While underwriting performance remains steady, it has seen some modest deterioration,” wrote S&P analysts in “Insurers Worldwide Confront an Interlocking Puzzle of Factors That Make Growth Tough to Find,” released Wednesday.

The report said that “although some insurers will manage because of sufficient capital headroom, others may face tough going this year, making downgrades more likely.”

It cited a variety of factors that will have an impact on insurers rated by S&P this year, “with some threats being interconnected and others specific to an insurer’s home region.” But all insurers face an “overarching challenge” in the possible hard landing of the global economy, driven by slowing economic growth in China combined with falling oil and commodity prices, according to the report.

“For credit markets, worries about a debt overhang in emerging markets and the energy sector may undermine growth prospects and dim the outlook for both profits and ratings among global insurers,” S&P said.

Individual regions face their own challenges, the report noted.

• For North American insurers, “a jittery start won’t make for a year of jitters,” said S&P, although investment income remains a concern.

• While S&P said it expects Asia-Pacific insurers to experience more volatile capital and investment earnings over the next two years, it also expects them to post some premium growth. The report offers a caveat that some insurers have turned to “risky assets” as a way to increase returns, “which could lead to capital erosion in the event of market dislocation.”

• In Latin America, higher interest rates could help insurers in Mexico and Brazil, according to S&P.

• Western European insurers will continue to contend with the impact of persistent low interest rates, which will be felt particularly by life insurers with a less diversified risk profile and relatively weaker capital position.

• For the Central and Eastern Europe/Middle East/Africa region, ”regulation, along with oil price concerns, adds another wrinkle as capital and solvency requirements come into play,” S&P said.

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