Trump ranked as potent global economic risk
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What would a President Donald Trump and an increased threat of global jihadi terrorism destabilizing the global economy have in common?
According to The Economist magazine's global forecasting service, they both represent the same global risk intensity. The Economist rates both potential events as being of moderate probability but high-impact.
As far as the terrorism threat goes, The Economist global forecasting service said Thursday that “should the current spiral of terrorist attacks and reprisals escalate, it would no doubt begin to dent consumer and business confidence, which in turn could threaten to end the five-year bull run on the U.S. and European stock markets.”
Regarding Mr. Trump, The Economist notes that he has given few details of his policies, and that such details as he has given are prone to “constant revision.” Nevertheless, “certain themes are apparent,” said The Economist.
“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war — and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the U.S. and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016. His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the U.S.) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.”
The Economist tempers its prediction by saying it does not expect Mr. Trump to defeat his most likely opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
But the British magazine says that there are “risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil or a sudden economic downturn.”
As Mr. Trump himself might say, the implications of such events bringing about a Trump administration could be “yuge” indeed in terms of global risk intensity.
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