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Mark A. Hofmann

Forecasters continue to predict mild Atlantic hurricane season for 2014

June 5, 2014 - 1:07pm


Two weather forecasters continue to predict conditions that would result in a below-average Atlantic hurricane season this year.

The chance El Niño will develop in the Northern Hemisphere will reach 80% this fall and winter, according to an analysis released Thursday by the federal government’s Climate Prediction Center.

The analysis also said this summer’s chance for El Niño, which can suppress hurricane activity, stands at 70%.

Additionally, the tropical Pacific is continuing to “evolve toward El Niño,” the analysis said.

Meanwhile, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University continued to predict a below-average Atlantic hurricane season in an analysis released earlier this week.

The Colorado State team forecasts that 10 named storms will form during the 2014 hurricane season, which began June 1 and lasts through November, compared with an average 12 during the 1981-2010 period. Four of those will grow to hurricane strength, as opposed to an average of 6.5, and only one of those will become a major hurricane packing winds of at least 111 mph, compared with an average of two during the 1981-2010 period, according to the analysis.

The CSU team also said that there is a 40% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the U.S. coast this season, compared with an average for the last century of 52%.

 



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