Health exchange enrollment won't hit government estimate: Consultant
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Enrollment in public health insurance exchanges will continue to grow but will fall short of government estimates when open enrollment ends on March 31, according to projections by health care consultant Avalere Health L.L.C. in Washington.
As of March 1, enrollment in the exchanges topped 4.2 million, according to reports issued Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Exchange enrollment is on track to hit 5.4 million by the end of March, according to Avalere. That projection is based on enrollment growth that occurred when the Medicare Part D prescription drug program began in 2006.
Twenty-two percent of enrollees signed up for Medicare Part D in the final month of the first open enrollment period. “If exchanges follow the same pattern, Avalere projects that 1.2 million people would enroll in the final month of coverage in March,” the consultant said.
If that estimate is on target, enrollment would be well shy of the 6 million estimate made earlier by the Congressional Budget Office.
How big a dent the exchanges, created by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, will have in reducing the number of uninsured Americans will not be known for some time, as the Obama administration has not disclosed how many exchange enrollees were previously uninsured.
In 2012, the most recent year comprehensive information is available, 48 million Americans were uninsured, down from 48.6 million in 2011, the U.S. Census Bureau reported last year.
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