NEW YORK — A slowly improving economy and continued influx of capital will play major roles in the commercial property/casualty insurance industry this year, according to industry leaders and outside experts who spoke last week at the Insurance Information Institute Inc.'s Joint Industry Forum in New York.

Speakers on two panels, “A View From the Outside Looking In” and “A View From the Inside Looking Out,” suggested there has been gradual improvement in the economy.

“I share the optimism about the U.S. economy. We see it in a lot of our businesses,” said Peter Hancock, executive vice president of American International Group Inc. and CEO of AIG's property/casualty unit.

Kishore Pannavolu, president of Metropolitan Life Insurance Co., said, “I think we've made a very nice recovery in the past couple of years.”

Others also saw bright spots. “Health care, energy and technology are all on an upward trajectory,” said Daniel Glaser, president and CEO of Marsh & McLennan Cos. Inc.

Franklin Montross, chairman and CEO of General Re Corp., said three trends — energy independence, the return of manufacturing to the United States, and the country being a technology leader — pointed to renewed economic strength.

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Economic policy in the form of reduced purchasing of Treasury securities or “tapering” by the Federal Reserve should provide a modest boost to the insurance industry, speakers said. Last month, the Fed said in a statement that the U.S. economy is expanding at a moderate pace.

Speakers at the insurance forum perceived this as a positive sign. “I am optimistic about the P&C market,” said John Huff, Missouri Insurance Department director and member of the Financial Stability Oversight Council. “I think we will see some investment yield change as tapering continues.”

The continuing capital inflows from sources such as hedge funds, pension funds and endowments have the potential to re-shape the insurance industry, speakers said.

“I think the industry is in the midst of a fundamental shift,” said Michael Sapnar, president and CEO of both Transatlantic Corp. and its Transatlantic Re subsidiary.

Jay Gelb, managing director at Barclay's Capital, warned of the dangers of too much capital. “I think the industry is way overcapitalized,” Mr. Gelb said.

Through the first nine months of 2013, the industry had $624 billion of statutory capital, he said, up 6% from the end of 2012, and $100 billion more than at the end of 2007.

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“By the end of 2014, the industry could be overcapitalized by $200 billion, which equals 30% overcapacity,” Mr. Gelb said.

Matthew Mosher, senior vice president and chief rating officer at A.M. Best Co. Inc., said putting that capital to use is the key.

Operational performance, and not capital, is what drives risk, Mr. Mosher said. “What are you doing with that capital? Are you chasing growth?” he said. Putting that capital to use on a new issue, like cyber security coverage, would be one productive way to deploy new funding, he said.

About 250 people attended the annual Joint Industry Forum at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel.