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Two theories of Tokyo earthquake risk emerging: Report

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Competing theories regarding earthquake risk in the Tokyo area are emerging in the wake of the Tohoku earthquake of 2011, a report issued by reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter & Co. L.L.C. finds.

The report, released Wednesday, notes that while one widely cited study suggests that stress changes to fault lines in Japan have increased by a factor of 2.5 the probabilities of earthquakes with magnitudes higher than 6.5 near Tokyo, another study contends that the stress increase caused by the Tohoku earthquake is being released in a manner that does not produce earthquakes and thus is not increasing long-term risk near Tokyo.

“The integration of scientific research in a balanced way is critical to our understanding of risk and the risk management decisions faced by insurance companies as they evaluate the risk and reward tradeoff,” James Nash, CEO of Asia Pacific Region, Guy Carpenter & Co., said in a statement.