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Global warming means more flooding, drought, frequent storms: Analysis

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Global warming means more flooding, drought, frequent storms: Analysis

Global warming is a fact that can't be explained by statistical “noise” or natural variability alone, with changing weather patterns increasing the risk of floods and drought, Guy Carpenter & Co. L.L.C. said Tuesday in a report.

“The single greatest threat under global warming is that of sea-level rise, which is expected to increase coastal flood frequency and severity under tropical cyclone, extratropical cyclone and tsunami events,” Guy Carpenter said the report. “The growing urban footprint and population density in coastal areas amplifies the financial and societal implications of such events,” according to the report, “Global Warming: The Evolving Risk Landscape.”

The report said to adapt to climate change and the associated perils, “it is essential to cut through the 'noise' and focus on decisions made in full command of objective fact.”

The report examines findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a scientific body that originated with the United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization to review and assess scientific evidence related to the physics of climate change and its effects.

According to the IPCC's findings, while there is evidence of climate variability in past centuries, the current rate of warming appears unprecedented, Guy Carpenter said in the report.

The IPCC also has found a human connection to that warming. “Based on consistent and scientifically defensible evidence, that 'warming of the last half-century cannot be explained without external radiative forcing,'” Guy Carpenter said of the IPCC's conclusions.

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“Sea-level rise presents the most significant threat for coastal areas as a result of melting glaciers and thermal expansion of ocean waters,” Guy Carpenter said. “Apart from this threat, changing weather patterns will impose drought and inland flood threats for many areas.”

The report says the IPCC has found that a sea-level rise of 1 to 2 feet can be expected by the end of the century. Last year's Cyclone Nilam in eastern India and Superstorm Sandy in the U.S. are examples of the potential impact of coastal flooding, the report said, “and under sea-level rise, such impacts will come with greater frequency and severity.”

While coastal areas grapple with increased flood and storm-surge risks, areas of the world facing increased drought as a result of climate change will face water shortages and increased wildfire risk, the report said.

While current models suggest tropical and extratropical cyclone activity is likely to decrease in the future, the number of intense storms is likely to increase, the report said.

“Adaptation measures for the hazards posed by global warming include the development and improvement of codes and standards for wind and flood resilience in vulnerable areas,” the report said. “This is especially important for developing countries where over 95% of weather-related fatalities occur.”

The report can be found here.