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Air Worldwide rolls out model to gauge flu pandemics

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Air Worldwide rolls out model to gauge flu pandemics

Catastrophe risk modeling firm Air Worldwide Corp. has released its first model for pandemic flu.

The model, which includes more than 18,000 simulated events, estimates excess morbidity, mortality and insurance losses caused by pandemic influenza. Built on Boston-based Air's existing mortality modeling capabilities, the new model captures disease transmission dynamics along with short- and long-range population movements, the company said.

“Pandemics are low-frequency events with a potentially high level of severity and impact to insurers and reinsurers in the areas of life, health and disability,” Nita Madhav, senior scientist, said Thursday in a statement. “This is the first Air model to estimate losses due to infectious disease risk, and we're confident that the pandemic flu model will provide clients with a more robust understanding of the risk and advanced capabilities for managing it.”

The effort also taps scientific research to model ignition parameters, pathogen characteristics and seasonality, while also accounting for common mitigation efforts deployed during the pandemic, such as vaccines, antiviral medications and travel restrictions, the company said.

“Insurers striving to manage pandemic risk need to know that a modern-day pandemic on par with the Spanish flu of 1918 could occur,” Ms. Madhav said. “Probabilistic modeling accounts for medical advancements and other societal changes and enables a more complete understanding and management of pandemic risk than relying on the historical record alone.”

Risk Management Solutions Inc. released its pandemic model in February 2007.